Please be careful with your stats and how you interpret the numbers over the next few months. Watching the average sales price, it will show a significant increase in year over year differences. There will be several people telling you how the market is softening even more. In truth though, the market is not as bad as it may appear at first glance. Let me explain…

If you watch the month over month average sales price (View them here), you will notice it seems we are at the bottom of the curve. December will see some type of change as people will be focusing on celebrating and time with family and not so much with selling or buying a house. Another interest rate increase will likely have a short term affect as well. January and February are hard to accurately predict at the moment, but whether the average sale price goes up or down, it likely will not be a drastic change month over month.

But this time last year the market jumped in December and then spiked in February. So while the current market is either increasing or decreasing by a smaller amount, when compared to the market last year the prices will seem much different.

Let me explain it with simplified numbers to demonstrate my point. Let’s say months 1, 2, and 3 of last year saw an average sale of $500, $600, and $700 respectfully. This year months 1, 2, and 3 saw average sales prices of $495, $505, and $510. The year over year difference will be -1%, -16%, and -27%. If you are not carful with your stats, you may state that this shows the market is continuing to soften, while in actuality it may be starting to recover or at least stabilize.

Am I saying that the market has stabilized? No, though when you look at the weekly numbers (View them here) it does look like we have reached the bottom of the curve. Optimistically.

Am I saying prices are going to start climbing again? They will as they always do, the question is just when. Nobody can time the market with certainty. Another interest rate hike and the holiday season may cause a dip in December. January and February will be interesting to see what happens. Spring will likely see some form of the market starting to heat back up.

To sum it up, all I am saying is to be careful with your stats over the next few months. There is no need to cause panic among hopeful home buyers and sellers who are already scared, and there is no reason for you to be either. The best time to buy Real Estate has always been yesterday. The next best time to buy is today.

If you are thinking of buying, selling, or investing in this market, please give me a call. Let’s discuss your situation and get a good understanding of your best options.