Burlington, Hamilton & Toronto Home Prices: What’s Really Happening Now

Many people hear news about Toronto real estate and assume the same is happening in nearby cities like Burlington and Hamilton. That’s not the case. This article shows how home prices in Burlington and Hamilton have behaved differently from Toronto, while still giving context for comparison.

Home prices across southern Ontario have changed a lot since early 2022. Interest rates rose, buyers slowed down, and the market shifted. Here’s a simple look at what has happened to Burlington, Hamilton, and Toronto home prices, and what may be next.

Burlington home prices peaked in early 2022

The average residential home price in Burlington reached its highest level in early 2022, at just over $1.1 million. Since then, prices have cooled. They are still high compared to nearby cities, but the intense bidding wars and rapid jumps in value we saw in 2022 are no longer the norm.

Hamilton home prices also peaked in 2022

Hamilton followed the same pattern. The average price for a home peaked at just under $1 million in early 2022. Today, the average price is closer to the mid-$700,000s. So Hamilton home prices are also down from the peak, but the city remains more affordable than Burlington.

Toronto saw the biggest swings

The average Toronto-area home price peaked at about $1.33 million in 2022. Prices have since dropped by around 15–20%, landing closer to $1.05 million today. Toronto rose the fastest during the boom and has corrected the most.

Across all three markets, the trend is similar:
Peak in 2022 → decline as rates rose → slower and more balanced today.

What about condo prices?

This is where the story changes.

Toronto condos
Toronto has a massive condo market. Prices have dropped, but the bigger issue is supply. There are a lot of condos for sale and fewer buyers than before. Units are taking longer to sell, and sellers have less leverage than they once did.

Hamilton condos
Hamilton condo prices have dropped more than houses. Many units serve the rental and student market, which makes them more sensitive to borrowing costs and investor demand.

Burlington condos
Burlington condos have held up better than Hamilton’s. Prices are higher, but the market has been steadier, with more end-user buyers such as downsizers and first-time buyers.

In short:

• Toronto condos = lots of supply, slow demand

• Hamilton condos = bigger price drops

• Burlington condos = more stable so far

Where are Burlington, Hamilton & Toronto home prices headed?

Most forecasts suggest:

• Prices may soften slightly or stay flat in the near term

• Sales will likely remain slower than normal

• Any price growth will likely be gradual

Condos, especially in Toronto, may stay weak longer because of high supply and cautious investors. Detached homes depend more on local buyers, so Burlington and Hamilton may stabilize sooner than Toronto’s condo market.

What makes these markets different?

• Toronto is investor-heavy and much larger

• Burlington attracts families and downsizers with higher incomes

• Hamilton remains an entry-level option for many buyers

They move in the same direction, but not always for the same reasons.

Bottom line

Home prices in Burlington, Hamilton, and Toronto are down from their 2022 peak. Buyers now have more time and choice. Sellers need realistic expectations. And while nobody can predict the future perfectly, today’s market looks more balanced than explosive.